What is the Paris Climate Agreement?
In December of 1015, representatives from 196 nations met in Paris and made a pact to adopt green energy sources and cut back on carbon emissions which contribute to climate change. On Thursday, June 1st, President Trump announced that the U.S. would be pulling out of the Paris Climate Agreement. President Trump had campaigned on the idea that this agreement was not good for the United States and so as part of his “America First” campaign promise, we were withdrawing from the Paris Accord.
This decision, of course, drove the Left insane. I have already covered TDS in an earlier post Trump Derangement Syndrome, well this was TDS on steroids. According to the Left and the media, pulling out of the Paris Climate Agreement was going to bring about the Apocalypse. The oceans would rise, people would die. Basically the same arguments we heard from Al Gore back in 2005. I believe Al predicted all those dire consequences by the year 2015. Of course we heard all those same arguments when President Trump announced Rex Tillerson as his choice for Secretary of State, and again when the President announced the replacement for Obamacare, and when he unveiled his budget. Apparently, every decision President Trump makes heralds a new Apocalypse.
Is climate change real?
This is absolutely the wrong question to be asking. The Earth is over 4.5 billion years old and the climate has been changing for all 4.5 billion years, and will most likely be changing for billions of years to come. During that time there have been 5 mass extinctions, the last one occurring 66 million years ago. It is safe to assume that there will be a 6th mass extinction. Whether it is do to global warming, an ice age, a meteor strike, or a super volcano, it does not really matter. As a species, humans need to ensure that we have advanced enough to ensure the survival of our species.
We know the climate has been changing long before humans even existed so I think every scientist would concede that even if humans disappeared from the face of the Earth tomorrow, the climate would continue to change. At some point in future, the Earth will likely become uninhabitable for humans. It has happened 5 times already, it will happen again. Lets assume, for the sake of this article, that climate change will be the cause of the 6th mass extinction. It is irrelevant, if the change is caused by humans, or a meteor strike, a super volcano, or a sun flare. The climate is going to become so hot, or cold, that we will experience an extinction level event for the 6th time in Earth’s history. Okay, so we have conceded the point. We are no longer “science deniers” or “skeptics”, or “right wing nut jobs”. The climate is going to kill us all. So what now?
The 2 Climate Metrics
If we know the climate will be the end of human civilization, then there are only 2 metrics we need to concern ourselves with.
- In what year will the climate reach a level at which civilization ends. I am no scientist, but lets create a climate survival scale of 1-10. 1 being the most hospitable human climate in our history and 10 being a civilization killer.
- How advanced does human civilization need to be in order to survive a level 10 climate or reverse the negative climate changes to bring us back to a survivable level. On a scale from 1-10 with a 1 being Neanderthal and civilization perishes in a light drizzle, 10 being so advanced we can save ourselves from extinction.
Those are the only 2 metrics we need to concern ourselves with. Climate Level and Civilization Level.
So how can knowing these 2 metrics help us. So far alarmists, like Al Gore, have been just awful at predicting the effects of climate change. What we need to know is when will we hit climate level 10 if we continue to see our climate change at the same rate we see now. For the sake of making my point, lets say in the year 2100 our climate will hit a 10. That means, unless our civilization level hits a 10 by the year 2099 or earlier, we are done for, extinct. Humanity goes bye bye.
Now back to the Paris Climate Agreement and whether or not it was a good or bad thing that the U.S. pulled out. For good or ill, our economy drives our civilizations advancement. We set the year 2100, at random, as the year we reach climate level 10. I am an optimist so lets make 2099 the year we hit civilization level 10. Whew, it was close, but we are save. We survive mass extinction 6 that came about from climate change. Now lets say we stay in the Paris Accord.
The Cost of the Paris Accord.
Besides a commitment to cut emissions in the U.S., there is also a commitment to give billions of dollars to poorer countries to assist them in obtaining green energies. There is the rub. This is what concerns President Trump. The stifling effect on our economy in terms of dollars and jobs. If all 196 nations meet their obligations, which is highly improbably, the effect on climate change is negligible. Lets be optimistic again. Let us assume that because of the noble intentions of the United Nations and the 196 represented nations, we slow the effects of climate change and now we do not hit climate level 10 until the year 2150. Wow! the world came together and people are dancing in the streets! We are saved! But wait. We overlooked our 2nd metric. Our civilization level. In order to lower the temperature a degree or 2 and get those extra 50 years, we stagnated our economy and cost ourselves 60 years on our timeline for civilization level 10. We now do not reach civilization level 10 until 2159, 9 years too late. Our celebration was premature. Our noble intentions have doomed humanity to extinction.
It is not only climate change we have to worry about. There is an article in Newsweek talking about a swarm of earthquakes that were recorded recently. We have to be smart about these things. Alarmists are not helping matters.